Tropical Storm Milton formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Saturday and may intensify into a hurricane in the next few days on its way toward the west coast of Florida, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
Milton currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving north-northeast at 3 mph. It's located about 245 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico.
The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday.
UPDATE: Milton forms in the SW Gulf of Mexico with 40 mph winds. @nbc6 pic.twitter.com/iNhnYZ6H4W
— Ryan Phillips - NBC6 (@RyanNBC6) October 5, 2024
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The NHC said areas that could feel the system's impact include the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas.
Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday, especially along the southwest coast of Florida and the Florida Keys, on Sunday, the NHC said.
The system has already started dumping rain and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecasts that its march will be slow, but it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf.
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1225 PM CDT Oct 5: Depression becomes Tropical Storm #Milton Stay up to date with the latest forecast at https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/7faKFL0kkO
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 5, 2024
Where is the tropical storm headed?
While it’s too early to definitively say where Milton will track, model guidance and the NHC are hinting at the core of this system remaining near Tampa.
For more storm surge flooding, the storm would need to go to Tampa’s north. This would bring significant storm surge to Fort Myers and maybe even moderate surge to Key West, along with some gusty winds for the Lower Keys, but it would not bring anything but rain to the rest of South Florida.
Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 Florida counties ahead of the Milton's impact, including Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe.
What will be the impacts be to South Florida?
Expect rain from Sunday through Wednesday.
The cyclone will bring breezy/windy conditions to the region on late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Weather alerts like flood and tropical storm watches and warnings could go into effect.
Miami-Dade County Public Schools have said they're monitoring the storm.
.@MDCPS is working with Miami-Dade County’s Department of Emergency Management (DEM) and the National Weather Service (NWS), monitoring the latest information regarding the newly formed tropical depression 14 and its potential impact to Miami-Dade County. We urge families to be… pic.twitter.com/q7GjOnz8gu
— Miami-Dade Schools (@MDCPS) October 5, 2024
How much rain should we expect?
The National Weather Service is estimating up to 8 inches of rain in Miami-Dade and up to 10 inches of rain in Broward over the four days, from Sunday to Wednesday. Luckily, we’ll be out of a King Tide cycle next week.
Total rainfall amounts could climb to over a foot closer to the actual center of the cyclone.
Refresh for updates.
