Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 formed Wednesday over the western Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a tropical storm in the next few days, forecasters said.
The disturbance was located 215 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios and 380 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and was moving west at 9 mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and the Bay Islands. A Hurricane Watch was issued from Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and the Bay Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch was in place from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
In the short-term, heavy rain is expected across Jamaica as showers and thunderstorms drift to the west with further strengthening expected.
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On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the western Caribbean Sea and slow as it nears the coast of Central America.
Forecast models are consistent, showing the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, but a larger spread of possible solutions exists after that.
Some guidance is targeting the northern Gulf and the panhandle of Florida, while others have the west coast of Florida in play. It all comes down to the strength and positioning of high pressure north of the system now, and strong jet stream expected over the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
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A strong jet stream could be a blessing. While it would help steer the system into the eastern Gulf, the large amount of wind shear could weaken the cyclone.
The bottom line? Until an actual system forms, the track and intensity remain highly uncertain.
It will be the 18th storm of the hurricane season and will take on the name Sara.
Folks with interests in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should keep checking in with NBC6 on our website and app.
