Tropical Weather Statement
Monroe County Lower Keys, FL
As of 11 AM EDT, newly upgraded Hurricane Helene was centered about
350 miles southwest of Key West, and is moving to the north-northwest
near 10 mph. This motion should continue through the early afternoon,
followed by a general turn to the north by late afternoon, and then a
turn to the north-northeast for tonight and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula in the next couple of hours, move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through much of Thursday, and then
make landfall along the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Rapid
intensification is forecast over the next twenty-four hours, and
Helene is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Helene will continue to have an unusually large wind field as it moves
northward through the eastern Gulf, with tropical storm force winds
extending out up to 300 miles east of the center. Expect squalls to
become increasingly frequent and strong across the Florida Keys this
afternoon and tonight, continuing through Thursday or Thursday night.
The strongest winds are forecast to occur this evening through midday
Thursday, when damaging wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph in squalls will be
possible, along with an isolated tornado or two. Sustained tropical
storm force winds around 40 mph may arrive in the Lower Keys as early
as this afternoon, but are most likely to arrive throughout the Florida
Keys island chain tonight. These winds are expected to continue
throughout the day on Thursday.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level at the lowest
elevation areas and shoreline is expected throughout the Florida Keys
from tonight through Thursday evening, and a Coastal Flood Warning
remains in effect. Coastal flooding is expected to peak near the times
of high tide occurring early Thursday morning, then again Thursday
evening. Flooding may extend over streets and low elevation properties
a few blocks from the shoreline.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher
amounts, are expected through Friday evening, with the potential for
some rainwater flooding of low lying spots.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
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* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within heavily
wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other
elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes
pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
in a low-lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to safe shelter on
higher ground.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
