Tropical Storm Sara forms. Here's what determines if Florida could see impacts

Tropical Storm Sara officially formed Thursday afternoon, and was expected to bring heavy rainfall and potentially life-threatening flash flooding to portions of Central America before possibly heading into the Gulf of Mexico.

Sara had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west at 10 mph about 105 miles wesrt-northwest of Cabo Gracias a Dios, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm prompted hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras, as its slow speed could be a big problem.

The system was expected to crawl along the Nicaraguan coast for a few days before finally moving out later into the weekend. There could be prolific rain amounts of 20 to 30 inches or more across this region, with mudslides and landslides a near certainty.

Currently, the following weather alerts are in place:

• Tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and the Bay Islands of Honduras

Nov 14 @ 4 AM - TD Nineteen is in the western Caribbean. Too early to determine what impacts, if any, there will be to South Florida. Continue to monitor the latest from NWS Miami and @NHC_Atlantic #FLwx pic.twitter.com/ehOiAHyujQ

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) November 14, 2024

The tropical storm lifts north later in the weekend and will likely push across the Yucatan Peninsula.

All this land interaction through late week and into the weekend should keep the system from turning into a more significant cyclone, which is one piece of good news amid all the expected rain.

The tropical system is expected to push into the Gulf of Mexico at some point during the first half of next week.

Will Florida feel the impacts of Tropical Depression 19?

The next move is all about the strength and positioning of the jet stream.

As it stands now, the stronger upper-level westerly winds should push the system into the eastern Gulf by the middle of next week, though the specific potential Florida impacts remain uncertain.

How much land the system interacts with will determine Sara's short-term strength - and the strength of the system matters.

Tropical depression #nineteen will drop brutal amounts of rain before re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely be a weaker system but some impacts are possible for #Florida. Stay with @nbc6https://t.co/PKdbgxwLAa pic.twitter.com/v1YxYT7z9a

— Adam Berg (@AdamBergNBC6) November 14, 2024

A stronger system follows winds higher up in the atmosphere, while a weaker system follows winds a little lower in the atmosphere. Add to that the questions regarding the strength and positioning of the jet stream over the Gulf, and we are left with a tough forecast.

Bottom line? Florida certainly could see some impacts by the middle of next week, but the intensity and exact location of the system are a little foggy.

Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which has also had 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Of those storms, five have made landfall in the U.S. with three hitting Florida.