Tropical Depression 19 forms: Here's what determines if Florida could see impacts

Tropical depression 19 officially formed Thursday morning, and now sits less than 90 miles away from the Nicaragua/Honduras coastline, prompting hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for those countries.

Its forward speed of 15 mph was expected to slow, and this is a big problem.

The cyclone was expected to crawl along the Nicaraguan coast for a few days before finally moving out later into the weekend. There could be prolific rain amounts of 20 to 30 inches or more across this region, with mudslides and landslides a near certainty.

Currently, the following weather alerts are in place:

• Hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border and the Bay Islands of Honduras
• Tropical storm warning is in effect for Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua boder and the Bay Islands of Honduras
• Tropical storm watch is in effect for Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas

The system lifts north later in the weekend and will likely push across the Yucatan Peninsula.

All this land interaction through late week and into the weekend should keep the system from turning into a significant cyclone, which is one piece of good news amid all the expected rain.

The tropical system is expected to push into the Gulf of Mexico at some point during the first half of next week.

Nov 14 @ 4 AM - TD Nineteen is in the western Caribbean. Too early to determine what impacts, if any, there will be to South Florida. Continue to monitor the latest from NWS Miami and @NHC_Atlantic #FLwx pic.twitter.com/ehOiAHyujQ

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) November 14, 2024

Will Florida feel the impacts of Tropical Depression 19?

The next move is all about the strength and positioning of the jet stream.

As it stands now, the stronger upper-level westerly winds should push the system into the eastern Gulf by the middle of next week, though the specific potential Florida impacts remain uncertain.

How much land the system interacts with will determine the short-term strength of the cyclone--and the strength of the system matters.

Tropical depression #nineteen will drop brutal amounts of rain before re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely be a weaker system but some impacts are possible for #Florida. Stay with @nbc6https://t.co/PKdbgxwLAa pic.twitter.com/v1YxYT7z9a

— Adam Berg (@AdamBergNBC6) November 14, 2024

A stronger system follows winds higher up in the atmosphere, while a weaker system follows winds a little lower in the atmosphere. Add to that the questions regarding the strength and positioning of the jet stream over the Gulf, and we are left with a tough forecast.

Bottom line? Florida certainly could see some impacts by the middle of next week, but the intensity and exact location of the system are a little foggy.