Following the first named storm of the season last week, conditions remain relatively quiet across the Atlantic. The latest storm to form since the 2014 season, Alberto quickly concluded in the mountains of northern Mexico last Thursday.
With the “A” storm behind us, attention turns to where the next might develop. “Beryl” is up next, but where it forms remains a guessing game…not that we’re looking to rush it.
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center is watching two different tropical waves. One in the Caribbean, another in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Both have a 20% for development over the next seven days. While 20% is low, the idea is to ramp up the development chance with time. This occurs when, or if, there is model support to warrant an increase.
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While not much may become of the wave moving into the Gulf, the Atlantic wave has some modest model support for early next week, particularly in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.
Admittedly, going into the month of July (which begins Monday) is not the time frame one might anticipate development. That’s especially true for the location.
But recall July 1st, 2021 when Elsa formed well southeast of Barbados, putting Florida in the forecast cone nearly from the start. The storm would ultimately swing around the lower Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico. But that came after a long Independence Day weekend of watching and waiting. Ultimately, tropical storm watches and warnings were issued for the Lower and Middle Keys. Key West recorded up to 7.5” of rain with a peak gust of 70 mph as the storm passed.
Hurricane Season
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These things can and do happen in July, just not frequently.
In short, July normally isn’t an eventful month for tropical weather. But we can’t put anything past the convergence of conditions over the next several months. While it’s expected that the tale of what the 2024 season will look like unfolds from August to October, perhaps July may shake things up a bit.
