The 2024 season is not dead – some reminders as we enter the heart of it: Ryan Phillips

The 2005 hurricane season was an extreme example of epic atmospheric performance orchestrated, in tandem, with epic fatigue for all who endured it. Storm after storm formed, leading to a historic run-up of systems (28) and rare use of an auxiliary list of names just to get to the season’s end.

Floridians intimately remember 2005 thanks to two storms that delivered substantial impacts to South Florida, Katrina from the east and Wilma from the west.

It was 15 years later that a hurricane season combined the right ingredients to produce more storms (30) with more Gulf Coast landfalls than 2005. This historic season unfolded amidst a background state of an ongoing global pandemic. Talk about navigating uncharted territory! 2020 was a season to not forget, even if impacts were minimal in South Florida.

In my reflection, it was seemingly easier to communicate weather information clearly, over one pathway, in 2005. Television, radio, print and media websites were the norm and remained the first, best way for weather information consumption.

Shuttle to 2020, when social media flexed its muscle as a powerful outreach tool. Then, conversely, marked its transformation to serve as a troublesome medium for effective hazard communication.

This isn’t a soliloquy lamenting legacy media vs. social media. But in 2005 it sure was easier to relay an important weather message, get to the point and not get lost in a sea of voices claiming “information.” 

The issue with this “new” media stems from posts that, at worst, hype and speculate with no scientific qualifier. At best, offering a half-hearted attempt to share a bullet point, but with missing elements. Through it all there is little to no accountability.

Professional meteorologists don’t want to spend time chasing down ill-informed or outright bad postings, but sometimes we’re left holding the fire extinguisher for the sake of clarity.

Enter the last few weeks where calls of a “busted season” have plastered the arenas that weather buffs frequent. Remember, it’s not always the loudest voices, but the persistent ones gathering engagement that draw the crowds.

In this final week of August, I know that Nostradamus is unavailable to help us out. And I’d really love to drop Walter Mercado a line for some assistance here. But as it stands, I’m left with a few sturdy reminders to share as we enter the heart of the season. Here they are:

• The background state of the atmosphere is still readily supportive of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. While sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content metrics aren’t everything, they’re critical. And they’re ready to produce. La Niña will eventually enter the chat, but even today’s “neutral” state holds potential.

• Atlantic basin climatology will come through. The six-month season is merely at the halfway point. You believe it’s over after five storms and August ends as quiet as the local library? Any week of any season with a break is welcome.

• Saharan Air has been a deterrent so far, yes. But at this juncture, it’s less likely to serve as a hindrance and should not be relied on to choke down development.

• Sure, everyone may be skewed by 2024’s seasonal forecasts for 17 to 23 storms…and, perhaps, this is what’s driving the sentiment of a “bust.” Three months in, five named storms down and an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 55 is not a sleeper season.

• We have short-term memories about how September to November can and do play out. As a refresher, allow me to remind you that 2017 produced seven hurricanes in the second half of the season, 2022 produced eight and 2020 produced 10.

Storms will form!

I implore you to turn to trusted voices in the weeks ahead.

I hope South Florida isn’t a part of 2024’s story. Either way, against a low tide of late August activity and the distant cries that the year is a bust…

There will be a season.