Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday as a major Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour. It intensified very rapidly, gaining 55 mph in windspeed in a span of 24 hours, which fell just short of the threshold of “extremely rapid intensification” which starts at 58 mph in 24 hours.
I found it sadly fitting that on the day that may cast the greatest doubt about the future of a livable planet, we had our fifth major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season. Since the satellite era began in 1966, there have now been eight hurricane seasons with five or more major hurricanes. But the nearly 60-year distribution skews right — every single season with 5+ major hurricanes has occurred since 1995 (’95, ’96, ’04, ’05, ’10, ’17, ’20, ’24).
Rafael brought a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding to parts of western Cuba as it made landfall in the province of Artemisa. It weakened over land, exiting Cuba as a Category 2 on Wednesday evening. Now over the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane has taken a sharp left turn and appears headed for the western Gulf. Florida, therefore, is not expected to feel any direct impacts from Rafael.
November is a month in which the Gulf of Mexico transitions pretty quickly to a wintertime regime. That means that westerly winds aloft strengthen as the jet stream dips further south. Those west winds will be roaring across the northern Gulf this weekend, and if Rafael were to lean a little more northwest, it would rapidly dissipate. But there’s a chance it heads a bit south of due west, in which case it could escape the strongest wind shear and survive beyond the weekend.
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However, there is also quite a bit of dry air in the western Gulf. Even if Rafael can escape the wind shear, the dry air could also do a number on it. In summary, there are many reasons to think that, after the Cayman Islands and Cuba, Rafael won’t be a bother to any other populations.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there’s not much to be concerned about. An area of low pressure forming near and north of Puerto Rico has a slight chance for tropical development between now and the weekend. But it’s expected to degenerate into a remnant area of clouds and showers which could bring slight chance of rain to South Florida late this weekend or early next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season as a whole continues to run significantly above normal. The number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is 161% of normal for this stage of the season. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which counts both the number of tropical systems and their intensity, is 30% above normal.
