Rafael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Friday evening, the National Hurricane Center said.
Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and will move north of The Caymans and cross Cuba on Wednesday.
The system may peak as a Category 2, which is stronger than earlier forecasts, but it continues to track more west, which will limit South Florida's impacts.
A Tropical Storm Warning continues for the Lower & Middle Keys. This is where we expect the highest impacts, but not anywhere close to a direct strike.
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The Keys will be grazed by some downpours Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning and tropical storm gusts as some of the stronger bands move through. We expect up to 3" for Key West and a storm surge up to 2 ft.
There will be a very sharp cutoff, with Miami-Dade and Broward counties only seeing a few isolated storms and some gusty winds, but no more than that.
Impact on South Florida
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A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland, the NHC said.
South Florida will see gusts to tropical storm strength right into early Thursday with the strongest winds likely to hit the lower and middle Keys.
As far as rain is concerned, South Floridians can expected scattered showers for Tuesday but Wednesday could bring a few severe storms, especially across the lower Keys.
South Florida's weather improves dramatically by late Thursday with a tranquil weekend on tap as Rafael slowly spins down somewhere in the central/northern Gulf.
