John Morales looks at Tropical Storm Rafael on Nov. 4, 2024.
Tropical Storm Rafael became the 17th named storm of the season on Monday.
The storm is supposed to intensify and become a low-end Category 2 hurricane as early as Wednesday morning.
Western Cuba is expected to receive a direct hit from Rafael.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas, lower and middle Keys. That is where Tropical Storm Force Winds (39-73 mph) are possible starting late Tuesday through all day Wednesday.
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A marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather is also possible for the lower and middle Keys on Wednesday.
Models indicate Rafael’s outer rain bands will move through parts of the Keys bringing with them the possibility of rotation.
1-2 inches of rain is possible as the storm makes its closest approach to the Sunshine State.
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What are its impacts on South Florida?
Further north, across Broward and Miami-Dade, we will experience windier than normal weather.
We’ll be watching gusts as high as 35mph, with locally higher wind gusts possible.
We will see dry periods and periods of rain throughout the day on Wednesday, but as of now the heaviest rain will fall in the Gulf, so impacts for us in southeastern Florida will be minimal.
Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, it’ll run into wind shear, drier air and slightly cooler waters, allowing it to further weaken as it approaches Louisiana by Saturday.
This will be a low impact storm for our area.
