Hurricane season

Normal for mid-summer, there's a quiet calm in the tropics​. But don't expect it to hold for long

Now, it’s mid-July and suddenly a lull has, again, settled across the tropics.

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It was just over a week ago that Hurricane Beryl powered up and made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the central Texas coastline.

Several days later, over 150,000 customers, in and around Houston, remain without power.

Again, from a Category 1 storm.

A week ago.

The second named storm of the season was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. Domestically, we should take pause and appreciate that the system wasn’t stronger when it made landfall in Texas. More importantly, learn from it in real time. It’s never “just a tropical storm” or “just a Category 1.” 

These storms come in all shapes and sizes, delivering impacts that can moderately, if not severely, impact your life before, during and after landfall.

The bold forecasts of April and May remain in play, and there’s still plenty of season ahead. Beryl is a reminder that all coastal and near-coastal residents are vulnerable to the far-reaching impacts of a landfalling storm.

Now, it’s mid-July and suddenly a lull has, again, settled across the tropics. South Florida is hot, “feels-like” readings tag 105° on the regular each afternoon and it’s been abnormally dry. Like it or not, that’s on par for this time of the summer.

Admittedly, it’s been drier than average in the month that generally yields the least amount of rainfall during the South Florida rainy season.

Patches of Saharan dust that typically traverse the Atlantic play a key role in our lower rain chances, hazy sunshine and suppressed tropical development.

Across the Atlantic waters, Saharan dust has placed a brief pause on the 2024 hurricane season.

In fact, since Beryl’s demise, not a single disturbance in the tropics has needed any attention. Some modeling suggests this trend keeps up for seven to 10 more days.

That said, if even 18 to 20 more storms are to form by Nov. 30, with several more becoming hurricanes, there’s still a long ride to endure this season.

This pause is normal, but don’t expect it to hold for long. Conditions remain primed for development as the summer crawls along.

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