As we’re sliding through November and looking to close out the Atlantic hurricane season, it appears that we’ll have yet another area to watch over the next several days.
More on that in a moment. First, let’s pause to check the tally for the season up to this point.
If you’ve been following along, you know this season of twists and turns has cranked out 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Of those storms, five have made landfall in the U.S. with three hitting Florida.
Last week’s Rafael pushed the season into a new classification with the duration and intensity of this late-season storm that rocked Cuba. As I’ve discussed in the NBC6 newsletter a few times this summer and fall, using the metric of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) as a means to weigh the season’s performance helps to classify a hurricane season beyond the total number of storms.
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As of today, that value is at 159.8, equating to an “extremely active” season. Surpassing the threshold by just .2, the formation of any additional systems will only embolden the measurement.
A late-season system could be on deck to do just that over the next several days. Looking to a familiar place, the Northwest Caribbean, there is some model support for development over the next several days. Taking that a step further, most likely it’s beyond Friday that something may arise.
For the time being, the National Hurricane Center has the area pegged with a 80% chance for development over the next seven days.
Should a system, even short-lived, form… the 18th system would firm up the 2024 season solidly as the 3rd of 4th most active, when ranked by ACE, since 2010.
Hurricane Season
The NBC 6 First Alert Weather team guides you through hurricane season
The next name on this season’s list is Sara. Never used, Sara replaces 2012’s Sandy after its retirement following a devastating and historic mid-Atlantic strike.
As mentioned, there is some model support for development and it’s probably wise that Florida should not turn a blind eye, as the possibility does exist for it to push into the Gulf Coast.
Checking in once a day is still a wise move, even this late in the year. While there are a range of outcomes that are plausible, far too much uncertainty exists for any detail, including timing, to be dialed in just yet. Once a system forms, our track accuracy increases.
With just under 20 days left in the season, it’s too soon to say if the season is finally “over.” Here’s hoping this is the final straw.
Just as the Northwest Caribbean is the general area to watch in the final stretch of hurricane season, we’ll do it again this weekend.
