Good morning. It’s meteorologist Ryan Phillips.
A few weeks have passed since the last named system dissolved, providing a nice break to the 2024 hurricane season. Over the last several weeks, several rounds of Saharan air spread across the Atlantic basin, guiding the pause. All the while, above-average sea surface temperatures have persisted, if not expanded.
That puts the season in an explosive standby position. Although the lid remains on tight, the water continues to boil.
The last few days have placed focus on the open tropical Atlantic, where a wave and an area of disturbed weather may co-mingle in the days ahead. While the National Hurricane Center continues to identify a “medium” chance for development near the Bahamas or Greater Antilles over the next several days, the waiting game will continue.
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That is, waiting to see whether a system develops and, if so, if it may pose any threat to Florida or the United States.
At the root of the elongated messaging is the inability for global forecast models to come into any semblance of agreement. It inherently leads to a low confidence situation, such as this.
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While it’s not often that we find graceful handshakes between the models so far out, their forecasts for this situation haven’t even put solutions in the same room, let alone the same area code.
With such a wide range of outcomes ranging from nothing to a tropical depression forming…from positions in the Gulf to the Southeast coastline … it’s difficult to pin anything down today or impart confidence.
It’s likely to be a day or two more before any tangible results might bend the conversation one way or the other. While we watch carefully via satellite and process the 4-times-daily model runs, we’ll await any information we can garner from the scheduled reconnaissance flights to the area (should they go).
It's a long exercise sometimes, especially in an on-demand world.
But patience is a virtue where information is empowering.
While I’m not overly concerned about this situation for South Florida, it certainly reminds us that an important turn of the calendar is ahead.
August begins Thursday and the heart of the season is just upon us. It is important to check in at least once a day to see what’s happening in the tropics, even when there’s nothing to be concerned with. Knowledge is power. Having the power to react appropriately, especially when it’s proactively, is in your hands each season.
