John Morales: Hurricane season is off to a muted start and the reason why is blowin' in the wind

What were you up to 10 years ago?

In the news, 2014 was mostly a bad year (I’ll let you look that up yourself). But there were some positives, including, you guessed it, a quiet hurricane season!

Only 9 tropical storms formed in the Atlantic in 2014. South Florida remained outside of any and all forecast cones drawn by the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Arthur was the sole storm to touch land—barely grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Arthur was a July hurricane, and also the very first system to form that year.

That’s noteworthy because it looks like this year’s hurricane season, despite all the hype, is going to remain quiet at least into this weekend. And that means we’re on track for the latest starting Atlantic hurricane season since 2014.

How can a season which some reputable academics have forecast to set records get off to such a muted start? If I may date myself with some Bob Dylan's lyrics, the answer is blowin’ in the wind.

No matter how hot the water in the Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas, or western Caribbean is, storm clouds are going to have a very difficult time growing and organizing when the winds are roaring above. And that’s precisely what’s happening now and forecast to remain in place for this week—a band of above normal westerly winds in the form of a jet stream crossing from the Pacific across Mexico, Cuba, Bahamas, then northeast to near Bermuda.

The winds aloft are forecast to diminish next week, at which time it wouldn’t surprise me to see tropical disturbances trying to organize in some of the aforementioned regions where we normally look for depressions in the month of June. Obviously, anything that forms in the Gulf, Bahamas or western Caribbean can be relevant to Florida. Don’t disconnect entirely over the weekend in case early signs emerge of what might happen close to home by mid-June.

For now, with no storms out there, you can avoid the customary live TV-news trucks and camera crews at the hardware stores and take advantage of the disaster preparedness tax holiday in Florida which lasts until June 14^th. From batteries to pet pads, walkie-talkies to generators (up to $3,000), it’s all tax-free until then.

Don’t forget, you should know your home’s vulnerability to wind and water and whether you are in an evacuation zone. You and your family should make a hurricane plan and be ready.

Because the season is not going to stay this quiet.