Meteorologist Ryan Phillips has the latest update on Tropical Storm Oscar on Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.
Since my letter last week, two more named systems have cleared the list for the 2024 season. Nadine and Oscar perked up quickly as the latter’s landfall in eastern Cuba underscored this uncanny hurricane season.
Oscar’s impressive evolution, from an Invest area Friday night to a tropical storm Saturday, ended up producing a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds Sunday afternoon.
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While Oscar, in any state the system is in, will move away from Cuba today and trek through The Bahamas, there’s not much to monitor behind it. Oscar is forecast to fizzle out in the open Atlantic within the next 48 hours.
This season has produced 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Of those storms, five have made landfall in the U.S., with three hitting Florida.
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Last week we discussed the metric of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) as a means to weigh the season’s performance. As of today, that value is near 145, equating to an “above normal season.”
But with time left, the threshold of 159.6 that would place 2024 in the “extremely active" category remains (somewhat) possible.
With roughly six weeks left in the season, it’s difficult to know if the season is “over.” For the United States, sure, that’s a prospect. But I doubt we can make it a few more weeks without a named system. “Patty” and “Rafael” are the next two names on this year’s list, but where they may form is anyone’s guess.
That said, bear in mind our proximity to the hotspot for development late in the season. The Northwest Caribbean remains the area to watch when the calendar reaches into the final stretch of hurricane season.
Keeping in mind that late-season storms can and do threaten the U.S., it takes a particular setup to allow this to occur. That’s especially true when cold fronts start to drop through the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic.
Hurricane Season
The NBC 6 First Alert Weather team guides you through hurricane season
But as for the best conditions that can still permit Florida landfalls at this point in the season, look no further than this Thursday’s 19th anniversary of Hurricane Wilma’s crossing of South Florida.
While I’m feeling good about where we are, we’ll let it play out a few more weeks. Additional cold fronts will certainly help to bolster our accomplishment of avoiding a storm for yet another season.
