As Rafael forms, gusty forecast and watch issued for the Keys

Holding vigil over the Caribbean for over a week finally yielded a system that is now likely to become the season’s 11th hurricane. The formation of Rafael Monday afternoon delivered the 17th named system of the 2024 season.

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The current forecast will send Rafael past Jamaica today and through the Cayman Islands late tonight as a potent tropical storm. With intensity forecasts teetering toward the season’s 11th hurricane, a hurricane warning remains in effect for all of the Cayman Islands.

It’s an unfortunate forecast thereafter. The current expectation is that a strong Category 1 hurricane will strike the western provinces of Cuba Wednesday, before re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. As of last night, portions of western Cuba were placed under a hurricane warning in anticipation of Rafael’s arrival and impact.

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Cuba, recently suffering from a national blackout lasting several days, has already experienced two other storms this season. Debby traversed the island in July while Oscar moved at a snail’s pace over the eastern reaches of Cuba last month.

As far as Rafael is concerned, although it’s late in the season, the impacts won’t change. As should be expected, a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet is possible in Cuba as damaging winds run through the country with locally heavy rainfall.

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As for the Florida Keys, residents should take note of the tropical storm watch in effect. This includes the Middle and Lower Keys and has been issued primarily for the concern of sustained tropical storm conditions, if even for a short period of time. Whether or not a warning is issued, gusts to 50 mph will be possible with rain bands that slide through Wednesday night.  

Late-week, Rafael is forecast to weaken in the northern Gulf, but at that point in the forecast our confidence remains low. While this appears to be a clean pass for the NBC6 viewing area, it’s a constant reminder that we’re never too far removed from a threat, no matter the time of the season.

Finally, it’s important to start framing up the season that has proven to be a roller coaster of highs and lows. From the anxiety of a storm’s approach to the exhaustion of post-storm recovery, the 2024 season has played out differently for so many communities. From coastal locations in Texas and Florida, to the mountains of North Carolina, 2024 has been truly unique.

While pre-season forecasts had us braced for impact, the steady distribution of storms kept our attention. Thankfully South Florida has been spared (again) this season.

If anything, this year has sent a reminder that the season is truly a marathon and not a sprint. Since Sept. 24, through Monday, 10 storms have formed. According to Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University, that broke the 1950 record of 9 storms developing in the same period.

Following Rafael, let’s hope it’s time to unplug this hurricane season.