NBC6’s Adam Berg has your football forecast for the Thanksgiving game at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.
The Miami Dolphins are visiting Lambeau Field for a Thanksgiving night matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. and you can watch the game on NBC6. Our Fins on 6 pregame show is at 7:30 p.m. and NBC’s network coverage kicks off at 8 p.m. The game is also streaming on Peacock.
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Details
Miami (5-6) at Green Bay (8-3)
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BetMGM NFL odds: Packers by 3
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-6; Packers 5-6
Series record: Dolphins lead 14-9
Sports
Last meeting: Packers won 26-20 at Miami on Dec. 25, 2022
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa. He has had one of the best stretches of his career since returning from a concussion in Week 8, with 1,277 yards passing, 11 touchdowns and one interception in his five games back. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.3% completion rate and is coming off a four-touchdown, 317-yard passing performance on Sunday. Tagovailoa has a touchdown pass in his past 11 games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL this season.
Packers player to watch
Safety Xavier McKinney grabbed his seventh interception of the season Sunday and is tied with Detroit’s Kerby Joseph for the NFL lead in that category. He has the most interceptions in a single season by any Packer since Hall of Famer Charles Woodson had seven in 2011. McKinney has eight total takeaways, as he also has recovered a fumble.
Key matchup
Packers RB Josh Jacobs vs. Dolphins run defense: Jacobs rushed for three touchdowns Sunday and has seven total touchdowns (six rushing, one receiving) over his past five games. He has rushed for 944 yards this season to rank third in the NFL, behind only Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry entering Week 13. The Dolphins allow 106.9 yards rushing per game to rank ninth in the NFL.
Dolphins cold streak
In Green Bay, the Thanksgiving forecast calls for high temperatures in the 30s and lows in the mid-20s.
The Dolphins have lost their past 11 regular-season or postseason games in which the kickoff temperature has been below 40 degrees, according to Sportradar. The Dolphins’ most recent victory in a game with a kickoff temperature at 40 or lower was a 34-31 overtime triumph at Buffalo on Dec. 24, 2016.
Key injuries
Dolphins: CB Kendall Fuller will miss his third straight game because of a concussion. ... LB Tyus Bowser (knee/calf) and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) also have been ruled out. ... OT Terron Armstead (knee) is questionable. ... OL Isaiah Wynn (quad, knee) was activated from the physically unable to perform list on Monday and could make his season debut.
Packers CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring) are both out for a second straight game. ... WR Romeo Doubs (concussion) also won't play. ... TE John FitzPatrick (back), LB Isaiah McDuffie (ankle) and C Josh Myers (pectoral) are questionable.
Series notes
Although the Dolphins lead the series, the Packers have won the past three matchups and six of the past eight. Miami beat Green Bay eight straight times before the Packers finally beat them for the first time on Sept. 14, 1997. … The Packers intercepted Tagovailoa three times in their most recent meeting. Miami’s Jaylen Waddle had five catches for 143 yards and a touchdown and Tyreek Hill had four catches for 103 yards in that game. … Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel and Packers coach Matt LaFleur worked together as assistants with Houston (2006-08), Washington (2011-13) and Atlanta (2015-16).
Stats and stuff
This is the Dolphins eighth time playing a game on Thanksgiving. Miami last played on Thanksgiving in 2011 when it lost at Dallas 20-19. The Dolphins are 5-2 on Thanksgiving. ... The Dolphins haven't beaten the Packers since 2014 and have not won at Lambeau Field since 2010. ... A win would give the Dolphins their eighth victory over an NFC opponent under coach Mike McDaniel. ... The Dolphins are 3-2 in their past five games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion in Week 8. During that span, they're second in the NFL in third down conversions (55.0%), first in fourth down efficiency. They've outscored opponents 145-107, and their 29 points per game during that span is tied for fifth. By comparison, they averaged just 10 points per game without Tagovailoa and were the worst scoring offense in the NFL. ... RB De'Von Achane needs 65 scrimmage yards to reach 1,000 total yards for the first time in a season. ... WR Tyreek Hill needs one receiving touchdown to reach 80 and become one of four active players to catch 80 TD passes. ... The Dolphins have held opponents under 100 yards rushing in five straight games. ... This marks the first time in five decades that the Packers have played on Thanksgiving in back-to-back years. The Packers won 29-22 at Detroit last Thanksgiving. The Packers faced the Lions every Thanksgiving from 1951-63. … This marks just the second time since 1923 that the Packers have played at home on Thanksgiving. The other time was a 17-13 loss to the Chicago Bears in 2015. … The Packers are 4-0 against AFC teams this season, with all the previous matchups coming against the AFC South. They won 30-27 at Jacksonville, 24-22 at home over Houston, 16-10 at home over Indianapolis and 30-14 at Tennessee. … LaFleur has a 64-30 regular-season record. He’s tied for second with Bill Cowher, Mike Holmgren and Andy Reid for the most wins by a head coach in his first six NFL seasons, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. George Seifert won 75 regular-season games with San Francisco from 1989-84, the first six seasons of his tenure. … The Packers have won six of their past seven games but they remain third in the NFC North, one game behind Minnesota and two behind Detroit. At 8-3, the Packers have the best record through Week 13 of any team to be third or worse in its division since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. … The Packers have scored 83 points off turnovers this season. Only the Buffalo Bills (84) have scored more points after takeaways.
Fantasy tip
Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith has been particularly productive lately with 15 catches on 19 targets for 188 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games. His increased role in the passing game should give him plenty of opportunities to provide fantasy points this week.
