Rep. Matt Gaetz’s primary in Florida on Tuesday presents the last opportunity for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy to exact revenge on the Republicans who ousted him last year.
Gaetz, however, is the heavy favorite as he faces Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock in Tuesday’s primary, when voters head to the polls in Florida, Wyoming and Alaska.
McCarthy, R-Calif., has backed Dimmock, and Florida Patriots PAC, a group tied to McCarthy's allies, has spent $3.5 million on ads against Gaetz, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The group has run ads referring to an ongoing Ethics Committee investigation into Gaetz over alleged drug use and sexual misconduct. Gaetz has criticized the investigation as “frivolous.”
But Florida Patriots PAC stopped spending in the race three weeks ago, a sign that Gaetz is in an advantageous position.
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Gaetz is the final member of the GOP cohort that voted to remove McCarthy as speaker to face a primary this year. While most members of that group who ran for re-election have won renomination, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, of Virginia, lost a close primary this summer.
Unlike Good, Gaetz has a crucial endorsement in his race: former President Donald Trump. Gaetz has touted Trump’s support on the airwaves, with one TV ad featuring audio of Trump saying Gaetz is “a very good person and he’s a very capable man. You ever watch this guy on television? Like a machine. He’s great. He loves Florida and he loves the country.”
McCarthy has acknowledged that Gaetz could be tough to beat in his conservative 1st District this year. But he suggested to reporters at last month's Republican National Convention that he may also be trying to damage Gaetz's standing ahead of a potential statewide bid in 2026.
Politics
“I don’t think he’ll ever be able to run for governor like he wants to,” McCarthy said, according to The Independent.
Trump, who cast his Florida primary ballot last week, has backed every other member of the state's GOP delegation up for re-election, including Sen. Rick Scott. That race will be set Tuesday, with Scott expected to face former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who's leading in the polls in the Democratic primary.
Trump’s endorsement is also on the line in the primary in Florida’s 8th District to replace retiring GOP Rep. Bill Posey. The former president has backed former state Sen. Mike Haridopolos, who has been the top GOP fundraiser in the race and who has gotten a boost on the airwaves from two aligned outside groups.
Florida’s primaries will also officially set the matchups in four competitive House races, with GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Elvira Salazar and Democratic Reps. Darren Soto and Jared Moskowitz defending their seats in November.
But the most expensive primary in the state, at least when it comes to ad spending, is a state Senate contest that has drawn more than $10 million on the airwaves.
Trump is involved here, too, endorsing former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar. But he is running against some heavy hitters in the GOP primary. State Rep. Tom Leek, the former head of the Appropriations Committee, is backed by a slew of major Republicans in the state, like Scott, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez. And Gerry James is backed by former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and other conservative groups.
Alaska opportunity
Tuesday’s primaries will also tee up the general election contest in Alaska’s at-large congressional district. Rep. Mary Peltola is a top GOP target as one of five Democrats representing a district Trump carried in 2020. Trump won Alaska by 10 points four years ago.
In Alaska, the top four vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November election, which is then decided by ranked-choice voting. That dynamic helped Peltola win a special election in 2022 and a full term that November.
The top two GOP candidates in the race are Nick Begich, who comes from a well-known political family in the state, and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. Trump and other GOP leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., have endorsed Dahlstrom.
Begich is back for another run after losing in 2022, and he has support from the political arm of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus.
While Begich has pledged to drop out if he finishes behind Dahlstrom in the primary, Dahlstrom has not committed to doing the same.
Meanwhile, in Wyoming, Sen. John Barrasso and Rep. Harriet Hageman aren't facing serious primary threats in the heavily conservative state.
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