Major airlines expect bookings to dip in the period around Election Day (Nov. 5), as has happened before.
Emily Reeve and her husband usually spend Thanksgiving in Hawaii, Florida or Disneyland, but not this year.
“I have a toddler now and I’m worried about being in a potentially volatile situation should we be traveling post-election,” said Reeve, 32.
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The couple doesn’t have family near their home in Portland, Oregon, so they like to skip town for the November holiday. But they say they’re staying put this time to avoid getting caught in an airport or a popular destination “and suddenly facing riots or looting, etc., because the people in the area aren’t happy with the election outcome.”
Anxiety around the 2024 vote is causing some consumers to rethink where, when and with whom to travel, industry experts and travel agents say. Federal authorities, meanwhile, say their security procedures are sound heading into Election Day, Nov. 5.
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Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian recently told CNBC he expected consumers to take “a little bit of a pause” in the weeks around the election, as the carrier has seen in the past. “People like to be home during the election period. They don’t want to be out traveling,” he said. “I don’t think they want to be spending money until they understand what’s going to happen.”
While the pandemic upended travel during the 2020 vote, Delta also saw demand flag in the run-up to the 2016 ballot before bookings rebounded in subsequent weeks. United Airlines executives said this month that they expect a similar pattern and “don’t think there’s anything to be surprised by.”
Still, 64% of U.S. adults said they would avoid traveling in the U.S. out of concerns about unrest, depending on who wins, according to a recent poll by the travel site the Vacationer. About a quarter said they’d stay home only if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, while just 16% said they’d hold off only if former President Donald Trump wins; 24% said they’re staying put no matter the outcome, and nearly 36% said the outcome wouldn’t affect their plans.
Businesses are also on alert, said Kelly Soderlund, a spokesperson for the online business travel management company Navan. Its domestic flight bookings are down 19% for the week of the election compared with the same week last year. Bookings for the following week, though, are 42% higher than the preceding seven days and 82% higher than the equivalent week a year ago.
“When we talk to customers about their biggest concerns regarding their travel program, managing duty of care — the obligation employers have to keep employees safe — ranks near the top,” Soderlund said.
The 2024 race has been deeply polarizing, with GOP lawsuits over voting procedures already mounting in battleground states and the Republican ticket repeatedly hedging their remarks about the 2020 race and their willingness to accept the current one’s outcome. Officials are tightening security at polling places and surrounding both campaigns, after two assassination attempts on Trump and widespread reports of threats toward poll workers.
The Transportation Security Administration “always remains vigilant in this heightened global threat environment,” a spokesperson said, adding that federal air marshals “continue to carry out critical in-flight security missions” and other duties to keep travelers safe. “We prepare for all contingencies and employ multiple layers of security that are seen and unseen.”
Flyers may notice tighter airport security in coming weeks, said Jeffrey Price, who runs the aviation security consultancy Leading Edge Strategies. In addition to more uniformed officers, “there may also be a combination of plainclothes law-enforcement personnel amongst the passengers,” he said.
Even so, 38% of U.S. adults plan to travel this holiday season, up from 34% last year, the research firm MMGY Travel Intelligence found in a recent survey. Concerns about steeper travel costs have abated, with 61% of travelers worried about them this season compared with 68% last year, according to the consulting firm PwC. That has left more room for political jitters to creep into consumers’ travel considerations, travel agents say.
“A few months ago, many families were splurging on vacations and spending more than they typically would,” said Sonia Bhagwan, who owns the Portland-based agency Dreaming of Sun and has previously booked Reeve’s Thanksgiving trips. More recently, “the driving factor is the uncertainty around what the economy may be like after the election,” she said.
That’s partly why Olivia MacLeod Dwinell, 64, and her husband Ross Dwinell, 74, were in Europe this month.
“Regardless of the outcome, it’s going to be a bit rocky for a time post-election,” said Dwinell. Their visit to London and France was Ross’s first trip abroad, and “the thought that we might have been stranded overseas because of domestic tumult was enough to accelerate our plans,” said Dwinell. “We’re not young, and we’re less intrepid than in the past.”
Kimberly Kracun, owner of Destinations by Kimberly in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, said she was recently approached to book a cruise for a multigenerational family. But two members of the group work for the federal government, “and they are worried about their jobs and possible furloughs after the election,” she said. Current government funding lasts only through Dec. 20, and the threat of a shutdown looms if the lame-duck Congress can’t hash out an end-of-year deal.
“They have now decided to wait another year for the vacation,” Kracun said.
Worries about traveling aside, some people are anxious about what might happen when they finally meet up with relatives.
Only about 22% of travelers expect that politics could spark conflict during family get-togethers this year, according to a recent survey by the tourism market research firm Future Partners. But that rate rises to around 38% of Gen Z and 29% of millennial travelers, compared with just 11% of Baby Boomers.
Chirag Panchal, the founder of Dallas-based Ensuite Collection, a luxury travel agency, has a client who usually books Thanksgiving trips with family members spread out across the country. “But this year is different,” he said.
After some tense political conversations within the family, the children voiced concerns about friction at holiday gatherings, Panchal said his client told him. So the parents are staying put in Dallas while their kids make separate plans.
For now, “they have canceled going anywhere as a family,” he said.
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