NOAA has doubled the chance of an “above-average” hurricane season. Hurricane Specialist John Morales has more
NOAA has released their updated predictions for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which call for an increased likelihood of greater hurricane activity and what the agency calls an 'above-normal' season.
The original outlook released in May predicted a 30% chance but now believe there will be a 60% chance of an 'above-normal' season.
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According to forecasters, NOAA is predicting the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to have about 14-21 named storms with 6-11 that could become hurricanes and 2-5 that could become major hurricanes.
So far this year, the Atlantic has seen five storms that have reached tropical storm strength with one hurricane already. The average storm season has about 14 named storms.
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“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a written statement.
“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
NOAA also said they are monitoring the conditions from El Niño and give it a 95% chance to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The El Niño phenomenon usually results in atmospheric conditions which help lessen the tropical activity in the Atlantic, but this year those conditions have been slow to develop, according to the official outlook.
