Trump or Harris: Who will win Florida's 30 Electoral College votes?

The debate over whether Florida can truly still be called a swing state could soon be put to rest depending on what happens on Tuesday.

Republican Donald Trump will be seeking to win the Sunshine State for a third time in a row when he faces Democrat Kamala Harris on Election Day, as the GOP seeks to solidify its hold on Florida.

Florida Presidential Race History

It may be had to believe in 2024 but Florida was once the most sought-after battleground state, with a history of helping to decide presidential elections.

Dating back to 1960, only three candidates have found themselves in the White House without a Florida win, including Joe Biden in 2020, Bill Clinton in 1992, and John F. Kennedy in 1960.

It was never more evident that Florida was a swing state than in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush won the state by just 537 votes over Democrat Al Gore to secure the presidency.

Despite backing Bush again in 2004, Florida went to Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, the last time Florida voted Democrat in the presidential.

In 2016, Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton by about 1.2%. He increased his margin of victory in 2020, topping Democrat Joe Biden by nearly 3.4%.

What to Expect This Year

Polls over the summer suggested Trump would top Biden in the election. Since Harris became the Democratic nominee in August, she's also trailed Trump in the Florida polls.

A statewide poll conducted by Mason-Dixon for NBC6 and Telemundo 51 earlier this month showed Trump with a 6-point lead over Harris in Florida.

Still, anything can happen in Florida, and state Democrats had expressed optimism after a Florida Atlantic University Poll in August showed Trump with a slimmer lead.

And two amendments dealing with abortion and marijuana use are expected to help with Democrat turnout in the state this year.

Florida Seeing Red

Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least five decades, but that all changed after the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now, in 2024, Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 1 million, out of more than 13,845,000 registered voters in the state.

The current situation in the Sunshine State indeed appears bleak for the Democrats.

There are currently no Democrats holding statewide elected offices and both U.S. Senators have been Republicans since Rick Scott defeated Bill Nelson in 2018.

Republicans also currently hold supermajorities in the Florida House and Florida Senate.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who eked out a win in 2018 over Democrat Andrew Gillum by a little over 32,000 votes, won a landslide reelection in 2022, defeating Charlie Crist by 19 percentage points with over 1.5 million more votes.

The gubernatorial win was just the latest for Republicans in the state. A Democrat hasn't been governor of Florida since 1996.

Speedy Florida Results

Florida, the third-most populous state, is generally among the first of the big states to report election results.

In the 2020 presidential election, Florida reported the results within a few hours of poll close of more than 99% of ballots cast.

Florida’s election system is geared toward quick and efficient tabulation. Coming out of its disastrous 2000 presidential election, when the U.S. Supreme Court settled a recount dispute and Bush was declared the winner in the state over Gore, the state moved to standardize its election systems and clean up its canvass, or the process of confirming votes cast and counted.

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Among the measures implemented were mandating optical ballot scanners in every precinct. The scanners read and aggregate results from paper ballots, immediately spitting back any that contain mistakes.

Also, Florida’s deadlines are set to avoid having ballots arrive any later than when officials press "go" on the tabulator machines. The state has a receipt deadline for its absentee ballots, which means ballots that do not arrive by 7 p.m. local time on Election Day are not counted, regardless of when they were mailed.

Florida election officials may begin processing ballots, but not actually count them, before polls close. That helps speed up the process, especially compared with states that don’t allow officials to process mail ballots before Election Day.

An Extra Electoral Vote

Florida previously had 29 electoral votes but will have 30 this year thanks to the 2020 census, which reallocated the votes. Out of a total of 538 electoral votes, 270 are required to win the White House.

Florida's 30 votes are the third most in the country, behind California and Texas.

The state will also have 30 electoral votes in the 2028 presidential election.