Fiona was flogging Puerto Rico already on Sunday.
While there has been some minor wind damage in the Leeward and Virgin Islands, it’s the rainfall that’s been a real eye opener.
Guadeloupe received nearly 20 inches of rain on Saturday, producing flash floods. And now 25 inches of rain are being forecast for Puerto Rico.
Because that island is larger and has two significant mountain ranges with peaks as high as 4 thousand feet, rain from tropical storms is enhanced. Plus, there are numerous rivers and tributaries that can rise very quickly when excessive rainfall accumulates.
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Two feet of rain is sure to cause a massive and potentially deadly flooding event, along with landslides in steep terrain.
The wind from Fiona is nothing to sneeze at.
Near the island-municipality of Culebra winds were sustained at 56 gusting to 67 miles per hour (mph) on Sunday morning.
Since Fiona was gaining strength, there’s a chance that hurricane force winds may be felt in Puerto Rico.
But without rapid intensification—which is not expected—the wind speeds will thankfully end up being a fraction of what was seen in Hurricane María five years ago.
Wind damage with Fiona should be limited to trees, power lines, awnings, weak additions attached to houses such as metal car ports, etc. Power outages have already been occurring in Puerto Rico, and Fiona’s winds will be enough to make those spread to across the vast majority of the island.
In the Dominican Republic weather conditions were still benign on Sunday morning, but a Hurricane Warning was issued overnight and remains in place for the eastern half of that country.
Authorities were preparing to evacuate pockets of vulnerable populations in the provinces that were under red and yellow alert—the local nomenclature for severe weather emergencies. Fiona’s forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) would bring the eye of a Category 1 hurricane very near the east tip of the Dominican Republic on Sunday night.
For the Bahamas and Florida, the official NHC forecast has Fiona turning north and out to sea.
Confidence that the hurricane will turn is high, especially now that the system is strengthening and forecast to be just under Category 3 intensity over the open Atlantic late in the new week.
A stronger Fiona will get steered by a dip in the jet stream, keeping it hundreds of miles away from Florida.
On the NHC track, only the eastern Bahamas might have some impact from the storm.
Therefore, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued by the government of the Bahamas for the eastern islands in the archipelago. The topography of Hispaniola could play a role in the systems intensity before Fiona is in the vicinity of the Turks & Caicos.
While South Florida continues to see an active and rainy weather pattern, the showers have nothing to do with Fiona, which is located about one thousand miles away.
Given our good fortune, perhaps we can start thinking of how we could help victims of what could well be the first hurricane to hit Puerto Rico since high-end Category 4 María five years ago, and the first for the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.
Meteorologist John Morales is a hurricane specialist for NBC 6.
