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All eyes remain on Invest 97-L in the Southwest Caribbean.
There is now an 80% chance that this becomes a depression.
Because the name “Patty” was taken by a subtropical storm way out in the ocean near the Azores, the next name on the list is now Rafael.
Our two big models, EURO and GFS are actually quite similar, but enough apart for slightly different ‘possible’ impacts here in South Florida.
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The EURO is now showing development, but on the lower end. It also keeps the biggest wind and rain impacts to our west, which would mean The Keys may not be able to escape the rain and possibly some wind, but it would be much lower impact for Miami and Fort Lauderdale, maybe just some enhance midweek rain.
The GFS has always been more aggressive with development as early as the next couple of days over Jamaica and Cuba.
The GFS has a better chance for Rafael. Because the storm would be a little bit stronger with this solution and maybe a bit closer to South Florida, this would dramatically increase our rain chances area-wide, and would also likely increase our wind threats for The Keys and maybe even Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Local
So, the early call, and it is still quite early is for enhanced rain Tuesday through Thursday, but how much depends on if the system is a depression, a tropical storm or just a lot of rain and also how closely it gets to Key West as it moves into the Gulf.
