The National Hurricane Center continues to watch an elongated wave of low pressure, triggering shower and thunderstorm activity, in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands and the northeast Caribbean.
The area, being monitored for development since Saturday, started to show signs of life Wednesday morning as individual thunderstorms bubbled up through midday.
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WATCH HEREAs of Wednesday afternoon, the development chances remain at 60% over the next seven days.
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The potential development is broad and includes The Bahamas, Cuba and Florida.
The system’s development has been stunted by its overall disorganization and dry air, restraining the suspect area from forming beyond clusters of storms.
Its movement continues to the northwest, a fairly slow pace.
HURRICANE SEASON 2024
Current indications are that a depression could form in the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend.
But the reason behind the large development area lies in continual forecast model disagreement.
Some model camps are leaning towards development sooner rather than later, with the system remaining near or over the Bahamas as it tracks north late this weekend.
Additional models are not leaning on development over the next few days, allowing a more westward track that would take the wave into the Gulf of Mexico before developing further.
Given that the system is disorganized and yet to garner any signs of development, it’s difficult to have any confidence in the forecast at this time.
With that, the wide geographic footprint in the NHC development area leaves Florida in the middle of the possible outcomes.
The wave’s development, especially in time and place, will have an impact to South Florida’s weekend forecast, which already includes scattered showers and storms.
Forecast confidence is likely to grow into the weekend as a result of scheduled reconnaissance aircraft flights, which will offer a glimpse into the system’s structure and provide additional data for forecast models.
Should the system develop and gain a name it would be Debby.
Debby would be the fourth named system of the 2024 season.
Check back often for updates.
