“I think that was a direct result of Covid”: Those who moved from very Democratic states to Florida may have actually strengthened the state’s Republican leaning, analysts say.
The Republican wave that swept across Florida in the 2024 election not only flipped Miami-Dade for the first time in 36 years, it also turned a number of previously blue counties red.
On Tuesday night, the state that twice voted for Democrat Barack Obama was won by Republican Donald Trump by some 13% over Kamala Harris. Just four years earlier, Trump defeated Joe Biden in Florida by about 3.3%.
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It's the third time in a row Trump won Florida, which not that long ago was a battleground state.
Florida's Road to Red
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Registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in Florida for at least five decades, but that all changed after the 2020 election and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Now, in 2024, Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 1 million, out of more than 13,845,000 registered voters in the state.
Comparisons of county-by-county maps from the 2020 and 2024 elections show Trump nearly ran the table this year and flipped some surprising and previously solid blue areas.
Harris won just six of Florida's 67 counties a mere four years after Biden won 12 counties.
A Surprising Miami-Dade Flip
The biggest flip of the night was obviously Miami-Dade, which voted Republican for the first time in 36 years.
Before Trump, the last Republican to win Miami-Dade was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Trump's win wasn't particularly close, either, as he beat Harris by about 13.5% in Dade.
DECISION 2024
Harris had a little less than 480,000 votes in Dade, about 43.9%, compared to over 605,000 for Trump, around 55.4%.
In 2020, Biden won Miami-Dade over Trump by 7.3%, garnering 617,864 votes, about 53.4%, compared to 46.1%, or 532,833 votes, for Trump.
Trump's victory in Dade is made even more impressive by the fact that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the county, 519,517 to 475,443, with another 481,399 with no party affiliation.
Tampa Area Also Goes Red
Besides Miami-Dade, another surprising win for Trump was in the Hillsborough-Pinellas area, home to Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater.
Both counties were won by Biden in 2020, Hillsborough by nearly 7% and Pinellas by a much closer 0.3%, less than 1,000 votes.
Trump topped Harris by 3.1% in Hillsborough and 5.2% in Pinellas this year.
Duval Changes Direction
Duval County, home to Jacksonville, was won by Biden in 2020 with a 3.8% margin, 252,556 votes to 233,762 for Trump.
But Trump flipped Duval this year, winning by 1.5% with 236,061 votes to 229,004 for Harris, despite registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans in the county.
GOP Gains Elsewhere in the State
While Biden won three counties in the Orlando area in 2020 - Orange, Osceola and Seminole - Harris only held Orange in 2024, winning it by 13.6%. Trump won Seminole by 3.7% and Osceola by 1.5%.
Even in the counties Harris won, she received a lower percentage of the vote than Biden in 2020.
The solidly Democratic Broward, which Biden won with 64.6% of the vote in 2020, was won by Harris with 58%.
Alachua County, home to Gainesville and the University of Florida, went to Biden with 62.9% in 2020 but dropped to 59.4% for Harris.
In the Tallahassee area, Harris won Leon and Gadsden but also fell below Biden's percentages. Leon voted 63.5% for Biden but dropped to 60.3% for Harris, while Gadsden went from 68% for Biden to 64.7% for Harris.
Palm Beach Narrowly Stays Blue
Another surprising result was in Palm Beach, long a solidly blue county where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans.
While Biden easily beat Trump by nearly 100,000 votes in 2020, 56.1% to 43.3%, Harris just barely topped Trump by about 5,500 votes, 49.9% to 49.2%.
