The tropics have three areas of concern. Out in the open Atlantic, wave number one, which is farther west is weaker and trending more south in the Caribbean.
Wave number two, which is closer to Africa, may develop into something quite strong, but is showing early sings of taking more of northern route that would keep it way out in the ocean.
That leaves the third wave, the one we’ve been tracking for the last week. Models were stubborn to help us solve this forecast as it was crossing the Caribbean, but they have been very consistent in the last couple of days of a depression developing in the Western Gulf; NHC now has odds up to 80% and models show that development could happen Sunday-Tuesday.
Should this system get a name, it would be Francine, which replaces Florence from the 2018 list (the list repeats every six years) because Florence was the wettest storm the Carolinas have ever seen.
The Hurricane season is on. Our meteorologists are ready. Sign up for the NBC 6 Weather newsletter to get the latest forecast in your inbox.
If the system does not get a name, the one out in the ocean most certainly will. As I have stood by for the last week, there is no model that ever took the system into South Florida and that has absolutely not changed, but any system that goes to our west can drag up moisture from the south.
At the same time, we have a cold front approaching from the north. That combination could lead to higher rain chances next Thursday through Saturday depending on the exact location of the storm and how far south the front pushes.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes next week, Tuesday, Sept. 10.
