After a nice lull in tropical activity for the last few weeks, we’re seeing signs of the Tropics coming back to life.
We have been monitoring a disturbance, and a secondary disturbance behind it in the open Atlantic, both drifting toward the Lesser Antilles.
The National Hurricane Center is now giving this disturbance a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
At this point, this is a low-confidence forecast with regards to both development/strength and potential track. Our models are wildly divergent.
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One of our more-reliable models keep this system as an open wave that moves toward the Gulf Of Mexico.
If this were to happen, South Florida might just see enhances moisture at most. Another of our more-reliable models shows a stronger, more-developed system heading toward the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida and then strengthening even more toward Cape Hatteras.
Because we have so much variability in potential strength, and because the system could literally miss south or miss east or anywhere in between, it shows that it is simply too early to know what will happen.
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But South Florida will need to keep a close eye on how the system evolves in the coming days. Whatever this system does become, it would not approach the Mainland United States until next weekend.
