As Saharan air continues to dominate the Atlantic basin and squash any tropical development, there is one area that may try to rise above it later this week.
Some 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of disturbed weather is meandering across the tropical Atlantic. Surrounded by dry air, it is essentially an island of potential in a sea of deterrent.
The entire suite of global forecast models has proven to show mixed reaction to development possibilities.
While some point to development through the week, others steer away from it.
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Continuing, some of the same models continue to advance the potential maturation of a system, while subsequently killing it off in additional model runs.
Given the lack of consistency in timing, placement and organization, this is an exceptionally low confidence area to watch.
The National Hurricane Center has placed this area in their Tropical Weather Outlook and currently allows for a 40 percent chance for development over the next seven days.
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Because the Florida peninsula remains geographically relevant by next weekend, it’s in our best interest to remain vigilant.
The next storm name for the 2024 season is “Debby.”
