After a nice lull in tropical activity for the last few weeks, this upcoming week will be one to keep eyes on for potential development.
Now, our first wave since Beryl is being monitored in the tropics.
There are two waves in the open Atlantic waters even with Saharan dust to the north. The leading one is now being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
In the immediate 2-day forecast, the chance of development in 0% and in the longer range forecast, the chance of development is 40%.
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Even though it might not take on a lowering pressure center right away, tropical moisture is headed for the Lesser Antilles. Meaning, rain and storms are expected through the arc of islands from the Leeward islands to Puerto Rico and west.
The NHC has stated that the environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
The environment that this wave is moving into has the warm sea surface waters to help this fuel the storm. It will be working against the Saharan dust to the north and a few pockets of wind shear.
Local
So confidence is still very low at where the system comes together.
What can South Florida expect?
One model has it strengthening and riding the eastern coast another has both waves merging but it staying relatively weak and moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Two very different scenarios with South Florida being the fork in the road.
South Florida will have to watch for increased moisture into next weekend but that is all dependent on what this ends up doing with lots of time for it to still change.
We’ve seen waves come through already this year and ramp up or rain chances so something to keep in mind.
As we saw with Beryl, the storms can maneuver and track around the threatening factors and still hold structure if it strengthens enough.
Debby is the next name on the list.
