“I think that was a direct result of Covid”: Those who moved from very Democratic states to Florida may have actually strengthened the state’s Republican leaning, analysts say.
Republicans had a great night. Democrats? Not so much. And 60 is a magic number in Florida. Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s elections:
NO DOUBT
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In 2022, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won a second term by 19.4 percentage points, and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio was re-elected by 16.4 points. On Tuesday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Florida by about 13.2 points, and Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott got re-elected by nearly the same margin.
See a pattern? And that’s just at the top of the ticket. Up and down the ballot, Republicans further cemented their power in Florida.
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As an example, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Miami-Dade County. But on Tuesday, Trump won Miami-Dade by more than 11 points, Scott won by 10 points, and GOP candidates handily won races for county sheriff, clerk of courts, property appraiser, tax collector and supervisor of elections.
DESANTIS DELIVERS
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After DeSantis’ presidential campaign was buried early this year in an Iowa snowbank, chatter swirled about whether his power would somehow be diminished in Florida.
But DeSantis on Tuesday showed that he hasn’t lost his ability to drive debate — and results — in the state. DeSantis led successful efforts to defeat ballot proposals that would have allowed recreational use of marijuana and enshrined abortion rights in the state Constitution.
The efforts were controversial, as DeSantis used state agencies to try to help persuade voters to oppose the amendments. But if DeSantis runs again for the White House in 2028, he particularly will be able to tell the Republican base that he defeated the abortion amendment.
THE MAGIC NUMBER
All six proposed constitutional amendments on Tuesday’s ballot received more than 50 percent of the vote. But only two amendments — one to put hunting and fishing rights in the Constitution and another to make a property-tax change — passed.
How could that be? Unlike in most states, Florida requires approval from 60 percent of voters, rather than a majority, to change the Constitution.
For instance, the abortion proposal, Amendment 4, received support from 57.1 percent of voters but failed. Backers argued Tuesday night that a majority of voters sent a message that DeSantis and the Republican-controlled Legislature should repeal a law that largely prevents abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. To put it mildly, that is probably wishful thinking.
DOWNTRODDEN DEMOCRATS
Republicans have controlled almost all levers of political power in Florida since Gov. Jeb Bush was first elected in 1998. But as recently as 2018, Democrats lost gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races by less than 1 percentage point.
Now, the bottom has fallen out. In addition to the huge margins that Trump and Scott ran up Tuesday, Democrats couldn’t cut into GOP supermajorities in the state House and Senate and didn’t come close to flipping any Republican-held congressional seats.
It’s true that Republicans have vastly more money than Democrats and have skillfully used redistricting to their advantage, but that will be the situation for the foreseeable future. With a gubernatorial election two years away, Democrats will need to quickly figure out a way to be competitive — or face remaining in the political wilderness.
NOTHING TO SEE HERE
When lawmakers gather in Tallahassee on Nov. 19 for a one-day organization session, some of the names and faces will be different. But Republicans will maintain supermajorities that pretty much give the GOP free rein in the House and Senate.
Sen. Corey Simon, R-Tallahassee, easily won Tuesday’s only competitive Senate race. Meanwhile, Republican House members Susan Plasencia of Orlando, David Smith of Winter Springs, Paula Stark of St. Cloud, Peggy Gossett-Seidman of Highland Beach and Fabian Basabe of Miami Beach fended off Democratic challengers.
Also, Republicans Erika Booth knocked off Rep. Tom Keen, D-Orlando, in a Central Florida district, and Republican Anne Gerwig appeared to narrowly defeat Rep. Katherine Waldron, D-Wellington, in a Palm Beach County district. In a pick-up for Democrats, Leonard Spencer defeated Rep. Carolina Amesty, R-Windermere, in the Orlando area.
