Dow soars 1,500 points to record high in best day since 2022 after Trump election win: Live updates

Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with major benchmarks hitting record highs, as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, to a record close of 43,729.93. The last time the blue-chip Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022.

The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, popping 2.53% to 5,929.04. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.95% to a record of its own of 18,983.47.

NBC News projects that Trump will defeat his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, after winning at least 291 Electoral College votes, including key swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Investments seen as beneficiaries under a Trump presidency erupted as the former president appeared set for victory. Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares surge more than 14%. Bank shares got a boost with JPMorgan Chase climbing 11.5% and Wells Fargo jumping 13%.

The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 surged 5.84%, hitting a 52-week high. Small companies, which are more domestic-oriented and cyclical, are believed to enjoy outsized benefits from Trump's tax cuts and protectionist policies.

"Trump is viewed as supporting lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and industrial policies that favor domestic growth, all of which could provide more stimulus to the U.S. economy and benefit risk assets. … During the 2016 election, the S&P 500 Index gained nearly 5% from the day before the presidential election through the end of the year in what became known as the Trump rally. We expect a similar trend could play out this time around, too," Marc Pinto, head of Americas equities at Janus Henderson Investors, said in a note.

Bitcoin, which could benefit from relaxed regulation, soared to an all-time high and topped $76,000. The dollar index climbed to its highest level since July on the belief that Trump's proposed tariffs against major U.S. trading partners would boost the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to around 4.43% on speculation Trump's proposed tax cuts and other spending plans would spark economic growth, but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, a social media company closely tied to Trump, finished up 5.9% after a volatile trading session.

In the race for Congress, NBC News projects that Republicans will win back the Senate. Leading up to election, Democrats were expected to take control of the House, but so far it was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a so-called red sweep. A Republican wave could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.

"It looks like a Trump presidential win but also a win for Republicans in House and Senate. If that happens, you're going to see the U.S. economy really taking off," Mark Mobius, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund chairman, told CNBC early Wednesday.

Major averages close at record highs

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all set new closing highs on Wednesday in the aftermath of Trump's election victory.

— Jesse Pound

Ford, General Motors well positioned among automakers for Trump policies, BofA says

So-called "legacy" carmakers Ford Motor and General Motors are "well positioned" to benefit from likely policies enacted by the incoming Trump administration, Bank of America analysts led by John Murphy wrote Wednesday.

The reason is that Ford and GM's "very profitable" core business of making pickup trucks would have been pressured by steps to "decarbonize" and shift to an electric vehicle lineup by the end of the decade under current rules, but is more likely to thrive under "softer regulation," BofA said.

To be sure, higher tariffs on imported components or vehicles from Mexico pose some risk to Ford and GM, given their direct and indirect exposure there, the analysts wrote. Electric vehicle manufacterers face slower demand thanks to "less pressure to go electric" and smaller government incentives.

Rivian and Lucid shares already reflect that outlook, while Tesla is likely to face fewer challenges "since it has already reached profitability and will introduce more entry level products that could be attractive for the larger public." Ford, GM, Tesla and Rivian are rated buy and Lucid is a neutral at BofA.

— Scott Schnipper

Chances of a 10% universal tariff under Trump next year are 'low,' says Michael Feroli

President-elect Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy may not be set in stone yet, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. 

"We think odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons," the analyst wrote in a Wednesday note. "China, on the other hand, is likely to face significantly higher effective tariffs."

Throughout his campaign, the former president has vowed to implement across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports entering the U.S. Meanwhile, for Chinese goods, he's proposed a levy of between 60% to 100%.

— Sean Conlon

Here is how the stock market performs historically after an election

Here is how stocks can perform into year-end, now that markets have gotten past the election, according to Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner.

Historically speaking, stocks rally into year-end from Election Day. However, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 perform even better during presidential election years, while the Nasdaq Composite does worse.

Take a look at their historical performance between Nov. 5th through Dec. 31st.

• Historically, the S&P 500 rises 2.68% on average from Nov. 5th to Dec. 31st, in data going back to 1928. However, in election years, the broader index rallies 3.38% over the same time period.
• Typically, the Nasdaq gains an average 5.53% between Election Day and year's end, in data going back to 1985. In election years, however, the benchmark gains just 0.79% over the same period.
• In its history, the Russell 2000 gains 5.70%, on average, going back to 1979. In election years, the small-cap index surges 7.94% from Nov. 5th to December 31st.

— Sarah Min

Chip stocks climb higher

Semiconductor stocks advanced Wednesday amid the broader market's rally following the election of Donald Trump.

Nvidia jumped more than 4%, helping push the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) higher by 2.4%. Advanced Micro Devices rose 1.7%.

— Hakyung Kim

Coinbase surges 26% for best day on record since its 2021 direct listing

Shares of Coinbase surged more than 26%, putting the crypto exchange on pace for its best day on record back to its direct listing in April 2021, when it gained 31% from its reference price on its first day of trading as a public company.

The rally came amid a broad rally in risk assets as Donald Trump was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election for a second term. Bitcoin jumped about 7% and hit a new all-time high above $75,000.

"We expect the entire crypto sector to benefit from the Trump win, but the largest positive impact on COIN & HOOD," Needham analyst John Todaro said in a note Wednesday. "On the back of this, we expect HOOD in the medium term to launch more crypto products as well as COIN and would expect more favorable outcomes on the SEC cases."

Robinhood shares rose 18%.

— Tanaya Macheel, Nick Wells

Stocks making the biggest midday moves: Super Micro Computer, Tesla and more

These are the stocks moving the most in midday trading:

Super Micro Computer — Shares plunged 24% after the embattled computer server maker guided for revenue in its December quarter between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion, missing analysts' expectations.

Donald Trump trades — Individual stocks viewed as trades tied to Donald Trump's election odds surged as the Republican clinched a return to the White House. Trump Media & Technology, majority owned by Trump himself, popped nearly 5%. Tesla, whose CEO publicly backed the President-elect, surged more than 14%.

Crypto stocks — Cryptocurrency-related names soared after investors bet that a Trump presidency would lead to a more supportive regulatory environment. Shares of Coinbase surged 28% and MicroStrategy rose about 12%, as bitcoin rallied to a new record high.

Read the full list of stocks moving here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

No need to chase regional bank stocks here, Alexis Investment president says

The excitement around potential lessened regulations for U.S. banks may be getting a little ahead of itself, said Jason Browne, president at Alexis Investment Partners.

"I certainly wouldn't chase regional banks up 10% here, and I think banks in general, financials in general, were already starting to [get] a little bit of a Trump rally [ahead of the election]," Browne said.

The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) continued to climb in midday trading and is now up about 12%.

Browne added that investors would likely benefit from sticking to a well-diversified portfolio going forward, though he did say that energy stocks are "little bit of a layup" under a Republican regime.

— Jesse Pound

Jump in 10-year Treasury yield, tariff uncertainties could limit market rally, BMO's Yung-Yu Ma says

The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for risk-taking, BMO Wealth Management chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma said Wednesday. But overall market enthusiasm could get tempered by more details about new tariff policies or a rise in Treasury yields, he added.

"Stocks are surging, reminiscent of the post-election boost in 2016, but there are distinct differences that are likely to limit the extent of the rally, since control of the House is still up in the air and is likely to be controlled by Republicans by a very slim margin," Ma wrote in a note to clients. "There is also uncertainty over tariffs, which is driving up long-term interest rates, and while current bond yields are not concerning, a run to 5% on the 10-year Treasury has been a level that gave markets pause in the recent past."

Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday, with the 10-year recently up 15 basis points to trade at 4.439%, hitting its highest level since July.

— Pia Singh

Financial stocks are attractive but capital markets stocks even more so, Wolfe says

Financial stocks as a group are attractive in the wake of former President Donald Trump's election victory Tuesday, but the most attractive subset of stocks in the group are those geared to the capital markets, according to a Wolfe Research note Wednesday written premarket by Rob Ginsburg and Read Harvey.

"Financials remain one of the strongest sectors in the market, up 24% YTD, outpacing the S&P and all other sectors but Communication Services," the analysts wrote. Most recently, financials "had been lackluster" after rallying earlier in the year, but "the longer-term trend remains in great shape."

Capital markets stocks inside the group remain the leaders, however, climbing 30% year to date before Wednesday, Wolfe said. Goldman Sachs is 54% higher in 2024 while Morgan Stanley has jumped 40% this year. Wolfe highlighted two other lagging stocks as potential portfolio additions: S&P Global Inc. and Artisan Partners Asset Management, up 9% and 8% respectively in 2024.

The capital markets group "has carved out a compelling base on a relative basis over the past decade. If this can remain intact and breakout like we think, the group should only extend its outperformance in years ahead," Wolfe said.

— Scott Schnipper

Goldman Sachs’ Kostin says earnings growth will drive stocks higher into 2025

Stocks roared on Wednesday on the heels of Donald Trump winning a second term in the White House – and further upside is ahead, according to Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin.

"Robust earnings growth should drive continued equity market appreciation into next year," he wrote in a Wednesday note. "We forecast EPS growth of 11% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, although those estimates may change as the new administration's policy agenda comes into clarity."

Kostin's team is keeping its 12-month S&P 500 target of 6,300, suggesting upside of about 9% from Tuesday's close.

The magnitude of the rally in stocks could be curtailed by a sharp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, the strategist said. The benchmark yield rose more than 17 basis points to about 4.46% Wednesday. Kostin noted that the yield hit a low of 3.62% in mid-September before climbing 80 basis points to current levels. "All-else equal, a backup in rates of that size would typically be accompanied by a decline in equity prices," he wrote.

–Darla Mercado

Dollar at overbought levels, says strategist

The dollar index jumped 1.7% to 105.13 Wednesday following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election.

On a technical level, the dollar has cleared the 104 resistance level, leaving the 106-107 level as the next major hurdle to overcome.

"Momentum is confirming the breakout but is overbought short-term. Support for pullbacks sets up at 104 and the 200-day moving average at 103.85," said LPL Financial chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist.

Turnquist added that continued dollar strength could pressure international stocks, particularly emerging markets.

— Hakyung Kim

Mid-cap stocks hit new intraday record high as financials rally

S&P 500 Midcaps hit a new intraday all-time high led by financials, with some tech and steel stocks also boosting the index.

Midcap stocks advanced 3.3%, on track for a four-day win streak and on pace for its best day going back to Nov. 2023.

Shares of Texas-based International Bancshares and investment banking firm Evercore rallied 14% and 12%, respectively. Synovus Financial shares gained roughly 14%.

Steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs surged 13%, while IT security company Qualys gained 14%.

— Sarah Min, Gina Francolla

'Decisive' nature of victory is helping to fuel rally, strategist says

Wednesday's surge in stocks is not just a reaction to a Trump victory, but also a relief that the election outcome is clear, said Edward Jones senior investment strategist Angelo Kourkafas.

"A decisive win removes the overhang of an unclear or a contested outcome. And that by itself clears some of the uncertainty and is helping that strong reaction we are seeing in the markets," Kourkafas said.

However, the rally could lose some steam in the coming days as the excitement wears off, he cautioned.

"We tend historically to see markets overreact the day after the election, so it wouldn't be surprising if some of the initial optimism fades in the coming days," Kourkafas added.

— Jesse Pound

Financial ETF slated for best day in two years

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) rose more than 4%, putting it on track for its best day since Nov. 10, 2022, when it advanced 5.1%. The fund also hit a new all-time high during the session, beating its prior high of $47.81 that was reached on Oct. 17.

The move was led by gains in credit card firms. Discover Financial Services and Capital One Financial are slated for their best days since March 24, 2020, and April 6, 2020, respectively, with both likewise reaching a fresh all-time high. Synchrony Financial is also on track for its best day since April 6, 2020 – the best day in its history when it jumped 16.9%.

— Sean Conlon, Nick Wells

Solar stocks tank as Trump win raises fears GOP will repeal IRA, slow clean energy progress

Solar stocks sold off Wednesday after Donald Trump secured a second trip to the White House and Republicans won control of the Senate, amid fears the Inflation Reduction Act, which helps fund clean energy manufacturing in the U.S., will be repealed.

The benchmark Invesco Solar ETF was down more than 12% in morning trading, while the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF was down nearly 8%.

Solar panel manufacturer First Solar tumbled about 12%. Residential solar stocks Sunrun and Sunnova fell nearly 25% and 40%, respectively.

Inverter manufacturers Enphase and SolarEdge tumbled about 14% and about 17%, respectively. Sun tracker manufacturers Nextracker and Array were down about 10% and 18%, respectively.

The future of the IRA, however, will depend on whether Republicans also win unified control of Congress. It remains unclear whether the GOP will secure a majority in the House of Representatives.

— Spencer Kimball

Credit card stocks soar

Two leading credit card companies were among the top performing stocks in the S&P 500 in early trading, according to FactSet.

Shares of Discover Financial jumped 22%, while Capital One popped about 17%.

The moves came as part of a broad rally for financial stocks after Trump's victory.

— Jesse Pound

Dow, S&P 500 open at record highs

U.S. stocks surged when trading began at 9:30 a.m. ET. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 set new intraday record highs in the opening moments of trading.

The small cap benchmark Russell 2000 popped 4%.

— Jesse Pound

CVS, DJT, Dollar Tree among stocks making biggest premarket moves

Check out the companies making headlines before the stock market opens:

• CVS Health — Shares rose 7.5% after CVS posted mixed third-quarter results, citing higher medical costs that weighed on net income. The pharmacy company earned an adjusted $1.09 per share, short of analysts' estimates of $1.51 per share, according to FactSet. Revenue of $95.43 billion surpassed the consensus forecast of $92.75 billion.
• Clean energy stocks — Shares of renewable energy and solar companies slid on worries that Trump's second term could imperil the Inflation Reduction Act and measures to fight climate change. The IRA includes a package of tax credits aimed at encouraging clean energy projects and spurring solar panel installations. Plug Power dropped 15%, SunRun tumbled nearly 17%, FirstSolar lost 13% and Enphase Energy retreated 12%.
• Dollar Tree, Five Below — Shares of Dollar Tree slipped 1.6%, while Five Below moved down 9%. Trump has called for universal tariffs on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. The National Retail Federation has warned those could cause prices to skyrocket.
• Trump Media & Technology — Shares of the media company, majority owned by Donald Trump, skyrocketed more than 32%

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh

China stock ETF drops amid Trump tariff fears

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) dropped more than 2% in the premarket after Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election. Trump's victory stoked fears of higher tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S.

— Fred Imbert

Russell 2000 smallcap futures surge nearly 6.5% on confidence in domestic-led, rapid economic growth

Index futures on the Russell 2000 index, the benchmark for smallcap stocks, jumped nearly 6.5% in early premarket trading Wednesday, borne of confidence that domestically-oriented economic growth will expand more rapidly, corporate tax rates will stay low and borrowing rates will come down now that former President Donald Trump secured a second term in office.

Early gains in smallcaps are roughly twice the nearly 3% rise in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and about three times the premarket gain in S&P 500 index futures.

Among individual stocks that are rising in early trading and helping to lift the smallcap index are private prison operators Geo Group, up 24%, and CoreCivic, higher by more than 21%, Qualys, ahead 19%, Revolv Group, rising almost 19% and CleanSpark, which added more than 14%.

Cryptocurrency-related companies are also helping drive smallcaps higher, with Riot Platforms, Bit Digital and MARA Holdings all higher by more than 10% in premarket, and Spirit Airlines also up more than 10% on expectations of less regulation and a possible revived merger with Frontier Group.

— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla

VIX falls as stock futures rally

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to 15.7 from 20.49 in the previous session, as traders adopted risk-on positions as Donald Trump came close to winning the presidential election.

Dow futures surged more than 1,100 points, or 2.7%.

— Fred Imbert

Private prison stocks gain on potential Trump win

Private prison stocks rallied in premarket trading Wednesday as former President Donald Trump edged closer to retaking the White House.

Florida-based GEO Group surged more than 31%, while CoreCivic rallied nearly 24%.

— Samantha Subin

So-called Trump trades soar in premarket trading as Trump nears victory

Stocks tied to a Donald Trump presidential election victory soared in premarket trading Wednesday as the former president neared a return to the White House.

Trump Media, which is majority owned by Trump himself, traded 50% higher. Tesla popped more than 12%.

Crypto stocks were also higher, as the prospect of a Trump victory is seen as bullish for the industry. Coinbase jumped 10.6%, while Robinhood advanced 8%.

Bank shares rose broadly. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase gained 7% and 6.1%, respectively, while Citigroup popped 6.3%. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) was up 2.5%.

Regional banks, specifically, ripped higher as well, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) climbing 8%. Regions Financial and Huntington Bancshares led the gains, rising 8.3% and 7%, respectively.

Solar stocks, meanwhile, fell sharply, as investors see a Trump presidency as detrimental to the sector. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) lost 7%. Sunnova shed 15%, and Sunrun dropped 13%.

— Fred Imbert

Asia-Pacific markets close mixed as results from the U.S. elections roll in

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as results from the U.S. elections rolled in and after Wall Street surged overnight.

Japan's Nikkei 225 led gains, rising 2.61% to 39,480.67, while the Topix rose 1.94% to 2,715.92 following the release of minutes from a September Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

South Korea's Kospi ended the day down 0.52% to end at 2,563.51, while the Kosdaq closed 1.13% lower at 743.31. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 2.5% at 20,480 as of its final hour of trading. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 0.5% to end at 4,024.28.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.83% higher at 8,199.5.

— Dylan Butts

Expect bond yields to stay choppy, trader says

Expect trading in bond yields to stay choppy, as the GOP secures a majority in the Senate and former President Donald Trump appears on track to return to the White House, AmeriVet Securities' Gregory Faranello said.

"The initial reaction makes sense, but we still need to see how policy unfolds," Faranello said. "The market's been in bear mode now for quite some time, and we're going to have to do a little bit of work, I think at these yield levels — to kind of sort out where we should be bigger picture."

He said bonds could see some buying with yields at current levels, but "I wouldn't rule out a continued move higher from here." He noted that the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was still below its 2024 high around 4.7%.

— Fred Imbert

Trump pledges to ‘help our country heal’ in speech to supporters

In a speech addressing his supporters, former president Donald Trump pledged to "help our country heal."

"We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly," he said. Trump also said that he would "fix our borders" in a second term.

— Sean Conlon

U.S. Steel shares pop on prospect of a Trump win

U.S. Steel shares jumped 9% in overnight trading on the Robinhood brokerage platform. The American steel producer could potentially benefit from a Trump win if he enacted similar tariffs on steel imports as he did in 2018.

— Yun Li

Trump rally may be overextended, Larry Benedict says

Some of the Trump trades have struggled to make further gains in the last few hours, even as the Republican candidate continues to add more projected electoral college votes.

That could be a sign that some of those trades are running out of steam and hitting areas of resistance. Bitcoin fell back slightly after setting an all-time high. Equity futures and the dollar are also off their highs of the night.

This market action could mean that the Trump rally is reaching its limits, at least in the short term, said Larry Benedict of The Opportunistic Trader.

"I think the market is overextended, and again he's not even taking office until January [if he wins]," Benedict said.

"We could have a little bit more room to go to make an all-time high, but again I think the market's had a really good run," he added.

Lingering uncertainty around the election could also be keeping the rally somewhat in check in overnight trading, Benedict said.

— Jesse Pound

10-year Treasury yield can trade at 4.5% on Wednesday, investment strategy head says

The 10-year Treasury yield could sit around 4.5% on Wednesday if Donald Trump has the lead or is official declared the winner of the presidential race, according to Tim Urbanowicz, head of research and investment strategy at Innovator ETFs.

Urbanowicz said investors will expect the Republican candidate to place the economy on strong footing overall. But he said some of his proposed policies around tariffs and price cuts are "inflationary in nature," which can push the yield higher.

"Investors are clearly thinking that Trump's going to run away with this thing here," Urbanowicz told CNBC on Tuesday night.

The 10-year yield was last up around 13 basis points, trading at 4.418%.

— Alex Harring

NBC News projects Republicans will take Senate

Republicans are projected to take control of the Senate, according to NBC News, including flipping seats in Ohio and West Virginia.

— Jesse Pound

NBC News projects Trump victory in Georgia

Republican Donald Trump will win Georgia, NBC News projects. That is the second key swing state won by Trump, following North Carolina.

— Jesse Pound

Stock futures advance, but rising Treasury yields could have 'inverse impact,' strategist says

Stock futures surged Tuesday night, but a rise in Treasury yields could begin to hinder the equity advance at some point, one strategist said.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained more than 500 points, or 1.3%, while S&P 500 futures rose 1.3%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.45%.

"We are seeing Trump rally that is showing investors believe Trump will win. Bitcoin up over 7% to a new all time high. Futures rallying as is the 10-year [yield]," wrote Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

"That's a disconnect I don't like," Woods added. "The 10-year continues to climb higher and should have an inverse impact on the equity market at some point."

— Sarah Min

Senate Banking Chair Brown falls to GOP challenger

Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown has lost his bid for re-election, dropping a hotly contested and expensive race against his Republican challenger.

The Ohio Democrat was down by nearly 5% with 88% of the vote counted in the state, according to NBC News, which called the race for businessman Bernie Moreno.

A senator since 2007, Brown was known for fiery, populist speeches and for grilling high-profile finance executives, as well as occasionally sparring with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

—Jeff Cox

Trump wins North Carolina, NBC News projects

Former President Donald Trump is projected to win North Carolina, per NBC News, marking the first battleground state called in a razor-thin election.

The news comes as overnight market trading signals a Trump victory. Bitcoin hit a record at $75,000, while stock futures ripped higher.

— Fred Imbert

Markets calling election for Trump, strategist says

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noted markets indicating a victory for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.

"At this point right now, the market's called it [for Trump]. Whether that turns out to be true is still not decided. That will be the interesting thing to keep an eye on," Sosnick told CNBC. "But again, the markets have been ahead of the pollsters, the pundits, for some time."

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures soared more than 480 points, or 1.2%. Bitcoin, which is seen as benefiting from a Trump win, hit a record and was last at $74,148, up 6.7%. Treasury yields also climbed, with the benchmark 10-year note yield trading around 4.4%.

To be sure, several battleground states remain too close to call or too early to call, per NBC News.

— Fred Imbert

Election battleground over the economy tilts Trump's way

If Tuesday's presidential election in large part was a referendum on the economy, voters in many states showed they preferred the Donald Trump version.

Most polls, including NBC's, showed the economy at or near the top of priorities.

Trump boasted during the campaign of low inflation, strong growth and a vibrant labor market. Vice President Kamala Harris also touted growth and jobs, but had a harder time on the inflation issue, being that it hit a 40-year high during her time in office.

Multiple trades overnight Tuesday reflected voter expectations: higher bond yields from a pickup in macro growth, a stronger dollar due at least in some part to Trump's stated intention for higher tariffs, and positive for risk assets like stocks and bitcoin.

—Jeff Cox

'Not all sectors are equal' with Trump tax cuts set to expire, Josh Brown says

Investors should pay extra attention to their sector allocation heading into 2025, according to investor Josh Brown.

"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of next year, and when you look at the S&P 500 and the rates at which corporations are taxed, not all sectors are equal," the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management told CNBC's "Your Money Your Vote" late Tuesday.

He noted that the effective tax rate is particularly high in the materials and industrials sectors.

— Sean Conlon

Euro falls to four-month low

The euro weakened 1.5% against the dollar to 1.0764, its lowest level since July 3.

The dollar index, which compares the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, advanced more than 1% to 104.785, its highest level since July 30.

— Hakyung Kim, Gina Francolla

Bitcoin surges to a new record of $75,000 as traders bet Trump has election edge

Bitcoin rallied Tuesday evening hitting an all-time high as investors bet former President Donald Trump was gaining an edge in the U.S. election.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency touched a record $75,000 on the nose, according to Coin Metrics. Its gains increased as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News.

Exchange operator Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy, advanced 4%.

For more on bitcoin's price action on election night read our full story here.

— Tanaya Macheel

10-year Treasury yield pops

Treasury yields jumped in early trading Tuesday evening as traders saw former President Donald Trump having an edge in the election.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 10 basis points to 4.30%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.

Even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News, traders speculated the early returns were favoring Trump.

Bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, moves that could widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

"Bonds are selling off across the yield curve massively as the Trump trade gets applied again," wrote Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. "We see markets expecting a Trump victory and a real possibility of a Republican sweep."

— Yun Li

Investor anxiety tied to election can be put to rest, Tom Lee says

Fundstrat's Tom Lee is happy that Election Day is nearing its end.

The managing partner said there's underinvestment given "anxiety" around a "shock" to the market tied to the election. However, he said market participants can expect smooth waters regardless of who prevails in the presidential contest.

He also pointed to expectations of dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve during its policy meeting this week as another reason to be optimistic on the stock market.

— Alex Harring

Dollar index climbs 1%

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose about 1% on Tuesday night, indicating broad strength for the greenback in currency markets. The index is now trading near its recent highs from late October.

In general, the dollar is expected by Wall Street to rise if Former President Donald Trump wins the election, in part due to his tariff plans.

— Jesse Pound

Investors can turn focus to Fed if Congress appears split on election night

The market can "yawn" and then shift focus from the election to monetary policy if control of Congress appears split on Tuesday night, according to Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group's investing chief.

On Wednesday, investors' attention can turn to the Federal Reserve meeting this week if they know one party doesn't have control of both the executive and legislative branches, the CIO said. That meeting, he said, may end up being the more important event for markets this week.

Boockvar's comments come as investors wonder who will prevail in races across the country, as well as when they will actually be called.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 98% likelihood that the central bank lowers interest rates at its gathering this week, according to CME FedWatch tool. That would follow the Fed's cut in September, which marked the first decrease to rates since 2020.

— Alex Harring

A new high in bitcoin would be a signal of a Trump victory rally, IDX Advisors CIO says

Several of the market moves on Tuesday night have come in trades that Wall Street pros had identified as tied to a Trump victory, but it's still too early to interpret those moves, said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

McMillan said that he was watching bitcoin most closely to gauge how traders were interpreting the election and a Trump victory would likely result in a new record high for the cryptocurrency.

"The level we're at now has been a strong resistance for bitcoin. It's kind of struggled since it set highs earlier this year. I think a new high — that would be meaningful to market participants," McMillan said.

Bitcoin is about 3% its all-time record, according to Coin Metrics.

— Jesse Pound

Treasury yields rising isn't a 'Trump trade,' Gary Cohn says

There are other reasons why Treasury yields have been shooting higher recently that don't have to do with the odds of former President Donald Trump going back to the White House, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn.

"We are renormalizing the yield curve. We're gonna have more and more demand for longer-dated maturities. The U.S. has a big maturity wall in some respects. … We're gonna need to roll out our debt," Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Trump, said Tuesday during a CNBC special.

"We've got an awful lot of corporate debt and real estate debt maturing in the next year or two. There's going to be demand on the yield curve, and we're going to go back to what I consider a normal positively shaped yield curve," he added.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared more than 70 basis points to 4.3% since Sept. 16 — when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points.

— Fred Imbert

The two most likeliest election outcomes are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,' strategist says

A Republican sweep and a Blue Gridlock are the likeliest election outcomes, according to BCA Research.

"The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,'" Irene Tunkel, chief strategist at BCA Research, wrote on Tuesday. "The Republican sweep will bring about protectionist trade policy and pro-growth domestic policies. Harris's victory will result in gridlock and will likely support the status quo, precluding any drastic policy actions."

In the event of a Trump win, Tunkel said she would upgrade regional banks and industrials. In the case of a Harris victory, technology and retail will get upgrades, the strategist wrote.

— Sarah Min

Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, investor says

Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, while the bond market gave consideration to a Harris victory, according to Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments.

"I am watching all the indicators," Tengler wrote. "[Tuesday's] market rally in stocks seemed indicative of a Trump victory. The bond market seemed to be hedging Harris according to our fixed income team."

Stocks during the regular session Tuesday rallied ahead of results from the U.S. presidential election, a sign the equity market is anticipating former President Donald Trump will win — an outcome investors expect will be positive for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 400 points, or 1%, and the S&P 500 advancing 1.2%.

On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell Tuesday, suggesting that a Harris win could continue to bring bond yields down from their highs. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, a move that suggested a Trump win would lead to a rise in the federal deficit.

"The measurable indicators seem to favor Trump," Tengler added.

— Sarah Min

Bitcoin jumps to session high above $71,000

Bitcoin jumped 5% Tuesday night as investors monitored the results of the U.S. presidential election.

The flagship cryptocurrency last changed hands at $71,199.30, according to Coin Metrics. It's now 3% off its all-time high, which it came in spitting distance of last week.

Shares of Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 3% and 5%, respectively, in after hours trading.

— Tanaya Macheel

Trump Media shares soar more than 20% in after-hours trading

Shares of Trump Media surged more than 20% after the bell as traders digested the first batch of U.S. presidential election results. The stock was down slightly earlier in the day after the Truth Social parent unexpectedly released its third-quarter figures.

— Fred Imbert

Futures jump as results begin to roll in

Stock futures made a solid move higher around 7:30 p.m. ET as states on the east coast began to report early results. Dow futures are now up more than 300 points.

— Jesse Pound

Tesla shares gain during Tuesday's regular session

Tesla shares closed up 3.5% in the regular session Tuesday, with the electric vehicle maker considered a key beneficiary of the U.S. presidential election regardless of the outcome.

CEO Elon Musk has actively campaigned for former President Donald Trump, spending tens of millions of dollars in support of the presidential candidate. However, Trump doesn't support federal spending in favor of electric vehicles that have bolstered Tesla in recent years.

Harris is expected to be more favorable for environmental regulation. However, she has proposed raising taxes for the wealthy, hiking the long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% from 20% for those earning more than $1 million a year.

— Sarah Min

Japan's Nikkei 225 jumps to kick off Asia trading

The Nikkei 225 traded 0.7% higher as investors around the world looked to the U.S. presidential election race. Year to date, the Nikkei has gained more than 15%.

— Fred Imbert

Trump Media reports third-quarter loss in surprise election day filing

Truth Social parent company Trump Media and Technology Group said Tuesday that it lost $19.2 million during the third quarter.

The company reported just $1 million in revenue for the quarter. The stock trades under the ticker DJT and appears to move more as a proxy for the former president's political strength than based on the direction of the underlying business.

The quarterly report was not telegraphed to investors ahead of time. Shares were up more than 6% in after hours trading.

"This has been an extraordinary quarter for the Company," CEO Devin Nunes said in a statement. Trump Media is continuing to "explore additional possibilities for growth."

— Jesse Pound

Jamie Dimon: This is a 'time to respect and uphold our democratic process'

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a statement on Tuesday that called for unity ahead of the U.S. presidential election results.

"Our country is now concluding one of the hardest fought and at times divisive elections in our recent history," Dimon said. "The American people are making their decision and soon it will be time for all of us to unite behind our President elect and all of our national leaders."

Dimon pressed for greater focus on economic and global issues while maintaining the democratic process during the election.

"We must begin the work of bringing our nation together and focusing on the pressing economic and global issues before us," his statement continued to read. "This is a time that requires all of us to find common ground and most importantly, a time to respect and uphold our democratic process. Our country is the envy of the world and if we can work together, we will ensure that it stays that way for generations to come."

— Pia Singh

Super Micro, Lumen Technologies fall after quarterly reports

Several technology stocks were under pressure in extended trading after reporting quarterly results.

• Super Micro — Shares of the server maker dropped 17% after the company's unaudited sales results for its fiscal first quarter came in short of expectations, as did guidance for the December quarter. Super Micro also said it has no timetable for when it will release its annual results. The stock tanked last week after the resignation of its auditing firm, Ernst & Young.
• Lumen Technologies — The tech stock slipped 4% after a third-quarter report that showed a wider-than-expected loss. Lumen said it had an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share during the three-month period, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for a loss of 9 cents.
• Microchip Technology — The semiconductor products stock fell more than 4% after the company's guidance for its fiscal third-quarter missed Wall Street expectations. Microchip said it expected adjusted earnings of 25 cents to 35 cents per share during its current quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had penciled in 46 cents per share.

— Jesse Pound

A definitive answer on the makeup of Congress on election day could help lift stocks higher, says Blue Line Capital's Bill Baruch

As investors await results for which party will occupy the White House on Tuesday, an answer on the makeup of Congress could help lift stocks on Wednesday, according to Blue Line Capital founder and president Bill Baruch.

"I think right now as you look at it [with] a split Congress [and] if we get an answer there tonight, I expect the market to be higher tomorrow," Baruch told CNBC's "Halftime Report" on Tuesday.

— Brian Evans

Futures open slightly higher

Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 were all modestly higher when trading began at 6 p.m. in New York on election night.

— Jesse Pound