Jim Cramer’s four big-picture questions for 2025

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday opined on the uncertainty of 2025 and listed four of the most pressing macroeconomic questions he's thinking about.
He highlighted unknowns about the 10-Year Treasury, the labor market, happenings on Wall Street and overall corporate earnings growth.
"At the start of every new year, I always try to figure out which stocks can work best over the next twelve months, but this year's different, precisely because there's just so much we don't know about what's coming," he said.

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday opined on the uncertainty of 2025 and listed four of the most pressing macroeconomic questions he's thinking about.

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"At the start of every new year, I always try to figure out which stocks can work best over the next twelve months, but this year's different, precisely because there's just so much we don't know about what's coming," he said. "While that's always true to some extent, this year the stakes feel higher given that the S&P 500's put up two consecutive years of 20% plus gains for the first time since the late nineties."

Here are Cramer's four big-picture questions that are likely to shape the market over the course of this year:

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What happens to the 10-year Treasury?

According to Cramer, this is perhaps the most important question of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by more than 2 basis points to 4.6% on Friday, and Cramer wondered whether it will sink to 4%, rise to 5% or continue to sit in the middle. He noted that since the Federal Reserve issued its first rate cut, long rates — which are set by the bond market — have soared. Usually, bonds and stocks move in inverse directions. Cramer suggested stocks should perform well if the 10-year yield goes lower and be fine even if it sits between 4.5% and 4.6%. But he said things could sour if long rates continue to climb and the 10-year reaches 5%.
Will the labor market stay tight?

Even though the economy has started to soften in recent months, Cramer asserted that it's still strong and unemployment is low. Currently, he said he bets the labor market can stay strong. But he speculated that mass deportation under President-elect Donald Trump could cause a major labor shortage, which could lead to wage inflation. And while continued strength in the job market is positive, too much strength could trigger a wave of inflation that could force the Fed to stop cutting rates.
What will happen in Washington?

Even with the Trump administration set to take control in about two weeks, there is a plethora of unknowns about what new leadership will prioritize or manage to push through Congress, Cramer said. Some of these pressing questions include whether Trump is serious about mass deportations and major import tax hikes, as well as what corporate taxes will look like and if and when businesses will reap the rewards of looser regulations. It's also unclear whether the bond market will continue to tolerate big budget deficits from the government, he added. To Cramer, it is so difficult to predict the answers to these questions because Trump is not a predictable president, as was clear during his last term.
Will there be the robust corporate earnings growth Wall Street has been betting on?

Consensus estimates for S&P 500 growth in the aggregate during 2025 are substantial, with some analysts predicting about 12%, Cramer said. He said he hopes that goal is achievable, perhaps through a combination of a strong consumer, strength in capital spending, deregulation and international markets like China recovering from the pandemic. But there are factors that could weigh the market down, like tariffs, higher interest rates or a pullback in consumer spending, Cramer added.