Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego will be Arizona’s first Latino senator next year, NBC News projects, after he defeated Republican Kari Lake amid a protracted vote count in one of the country’s key swing states.
Gallego will replace Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who retired after one term. It’s the fourth consecutive Senate election Democrats have won in Arizona, which has veered sharply to the middle in the Donald Trump era after years of reliable Republican control. Trump won the state in 2016 and won it again in 2024 by what appears to be his biggest margin in any of the core swing states.
But President Joe Biden narrowly carried Arizona in 2020, part of a recent Democratic renaissance in the state.
A key component of Gallego’s victory was his reinvention as a softer-edged battleground moderate instead of the fiery progressive of his earlier days in politics. Gallego rose through the ranks in Arizona on the edge of his party, stumping alongside progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and joining the Congressional Progressive Caucus in the House.
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He largely sidelined the progressive label in his bid for the Senate, though, and among other endorsements this year he got support from one of Arizona’s major police unions, catering to a state which has more registered Republicans than Democrats.
Lake, meanwhile, was unable to sand down the sharp edges of her political persona enough after she lost a MAGA-aligned run for governor in 2022 and refused to acknowledge her defeat. A slice of Republicans and independents were unable to come to terms with her candidacy, and she ran well behind Trump despite her efforts to tie herself to his top-of-the-ticket campaign.
Gallego enjoyed superior fundraising in this race and more outside spending support from his party, consistently outraising Lake throughout the campaign before leaving her well behind in the cash race in the final months.
Decision 2024
The Marine veteran and son of Colombian and Mexican immigrants fused his identity into his campaign, launching both the "Veterans For Gallego" and Juntos Con Gallego" coalitions throughout the summer. But he kept his message honed on the issues behind those identities, linking them to border security, comprehensive immigration reform, and expanding mental health services for veterans.
Gallego focused on his party’s strengths, like reproductive rights, but he also tried to tackle his party’s weaknesses head-on, advertising on issues like border security. Lake tried to tie Gallego to President Joe Biden and his administration on a host of issues, but especially border security, a key focus of hers during their lone debate in October.
Lake, who once referred to herself as “Trump in heels,” branded Gallego with a collection of unflattering nicknames, including “swamp rat.” She also went after him personally, bringing up details of his divorce from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego and trying to pin him to his progressive past.
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